Today, the Fed declares that the short term is horrible and the long term is good.  The only prediction to even consider is the short term.  There is no such thing as a long term forecast other than to say “in the long term we will be dead.”  Certainly, do not make decisions based on a rosy long term forecast because between now and that long term forecast many things will happen that cannot possibly be in the forecast.  The forecast will be incrementally updated and for each update consider only the short term forecast.

For example, last year the Fed was saving that the second half of 2009 would be good.  Now, they are saying not so good.  Today, they are saying 2010 will be good.  Let’s just wait and see what they say in January, 2010.

Everything is in free fall even if it is in slow-motion.  Lots of talk about stopping foreclosures by reducing payments to 31% of income.  Well, this doesn’t work for the people who have lost jobs and there are going to be many more job losses going forward.  These job losses are going to happen because companies want to maximize profits and care little about preserving jobs.

America is doomed.